Methodology

The Southeast Asia Influence Index measures the relative standing of the region’s external powers.

Studies on the geopolitics of Southeast Asia focus extensively on the concept of influence — the capacity of one state (usually the United States or China) to alter the behaviour of another. However, few define, let alone compare, influence, except through public or elite opinion polling. Such surveys can produce only a circular logic: whichever country is said to be the most influential is in fact the most influential because it is said to be so.

This project provides the first comprehensive analysis of influence activities in Southeast Asia, drawing on the established methodology of the Asia Power Index. While the Asia Power Index measures countries’ underlying resources — which can be deployed globally — this project measures only the influence activities of external partners with the eleven countries of Southeast Asia. Recognising the diversity of Southeast Asian countries’ external relationships, the analysis is focused on individual Southeast Asian countries. However, we also provide aggregated data for Southeast Asia within each indicator, to enable an overview result. This data is aggregated using a weighted average, rather than treating each of the eleven countries as equally weighted.

Analysis focuses on four primary domains of bilateral influence, drawn from the Asia Power Index: Economic relationships, Defence networks, Cultural influence and Diplomatic influence. These core measures also align with the “DIME” acronym used by the US military to identify the principal instruments of national power — diplomatic, information, military and economic. Recognising the importance of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the project applies a new weighting for Regional engagement, conceptualising cooperation with ASEAN as a possible boost to the partner’s individual bilateral relationships.

A partner’s overall influence is calculated as a weighted average across the five measures of influence, comprising 60 individual indicators.

Influence

An external partner’s influence activities via economic, diplomatic, defence and cultural ties.

• Economic relationships: Bilateral economic interdependencies between a Southeast Asian country and a partner country, measured in terms of trade relations and investment ties

• Defence networks: Bilateral defence engagement between a Southeast Asian country and a partner country, measured in terms of defence cooperation activities and arms transfers

• Diplomatic influence: Bilateral diplomatic ties between a Southeast Asian country and a partner country, measured in terms of diplomatic network, development cooperation, and diplomatic engagement.

• Cultural influence: Cultural connections between a Southeast Asian country and a partner country, measured in terms of media flows and people exchanges

• Regional engagement: Cooperation between a partner country and ASEAN or other regional institutions, measured in terms of participation in regional groupings and provision of regional development assistance

Table of measures, sub-measures, and indicators